No: 77° or below
Highest temperature in Houston on Oct 30, 2026?
Risk: Higher Confidence
- AI estimate
- 84%
- Market-implied at publication
- 74%
- Price at publication
- 74¢
- Edge after fee
- +8.7 pts
- Category
- WEATHER
- Ticker
- KXHIGHTHOU-26OCT30-T78
- Side
- No
- Market closes
The National Weather Service forecasts an 80°F high before temperatures fall toward 77°F, making a high above 77°F the better call.
Original analysis
- Chosen by our AI models at the 8 AM lock, from Kalshi's live prices and the National Weather Service forecast.
- NWS point forecast near Houston Hobby: high 80°F. Source: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/HGX/66,89/forecast.
- A Kalshi contract pays $1 if right. We recorded a 74¢ entry quote at publication, a market-implied reference of about 74%. That is the market's price.
- Our AI's estimate: 84%. Price: 74¢ plus about 1.4¢ Kalshi fee. Edge: +8.7 points. Each $1 contract costs about 75.4¢ and pays 24.7¢ profit if right. The estimate is our AI's, not a proven chance.
- Forecast-aligned: this agrees with the National Weather Service point forecast. Kalshi traders see the same forecast, so this is not a separately measured edge, and a daily high can miss a two-degree bucket by a single degree.
Stats at publication
- Entry quote at lock
- No 74¢
- Market-implied at lock
- 74%
- Our AI's estimate
- 84%
- Edge after Kalshi fee
- +8.7 pts
- 24h volume
- 2,624
- Outcomes
- 2
Recorded times (Central)
- Picked by our desk
- Locked (saved for good)
- First on this site
- Price as of