No: 66° or below
Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 29, 2026?
Risk: Higher Confidence
- AI estimate
- 85%
- Market-implied at publication
- 77%
- Price at publication
- 77¢
- Edge after fee
- +6.8 pts
- Category
- WEATHER
- Ticker
- KXHIGHNY-26OCT29-T67
- Side
- No
- Market closes
The National Weather Service forecasts a high near 69°F in New York City, well above the 66° threshold.
Original analysis
- Chosen by our AI models at the 8 AM lock, from Kalshi's live prices and the National Weather Service forecast.
- NWS point forecast near Central Park: high 69°F. Source: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/34,45/forecast.
- A Kalshi contract pays $1 if right. We recorded a 77¢ entry quote at publication, a market-implied reference of about 77%. That is the market's price.
- Our AI's estimate: 85%. Price: 77¢ plus about 1.2¢ Kalshi fee. Edge: +6.8 points. Each $1 contract costs about 78.2¢ and pays 21.8¢ profit if right. The estimate is our AI's, not a proven chance.
- Forecast-aligned: this agrees with the National Weather Service point forecast. Kalshi traders see the same forecast, so this is not a separately measured edge, and a daily high can miss a two-degree bucket by a single degree.
Stats at publication
- Entry quote at lock
- No 77¢
- Market-implied at lock
- 77%
- Our AI's estimate
- 85%
- Edge after Kalshi fee
- +6.8 pts
- 24h volume
- 10,548
- Outcomes
- 2
Recorded times (Central)
- Picked by our desk
- Locked (saved for good)
- First on this site
- Price as of