No: 59° or below
Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 28, 2026?
Risk: Bold call
Bold call: our AI rates this pick more than 10 points higher than the market price. When the two disagree that much, the market is often right, so this pick carries extra risk. Run It Bet is entertainment; only use money you can afford to lose.
- AI estimate
- 88%
- Market-implied at publication
- 71%
- Price at publication
- 71¢
- Edge after fee
- +15.6 pts
- Category
- WEATHER
- Ticker
- KXHIGHNY-26OCT28-T60
- Side
- No
- Market closes
The National Weather Service forecasts a high near 62°F in Central Park, comfortably above the 59° threshold, so the high is very unlikely to land at 59° or below.
Original analysis
- Chosen by our AI models at the 8 AM lock, from Kalshi's live prices and the National Weather Service forecast.
- NWS point forecast near Central Park: high 62°F. Source: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/34,45/forecast.
- A Kalshi contract pays $1 if right. We recorded a 71¢ entry quote at publication, a market-implied reference of about 71%. That is the market's price.
- Our AI's estimate: 88%. Price: 71¢ plus about 1.4¢ Kalshi fee. Edge: +15.6 points. Each $1 contract costs about 72.4¢ and pays 27.6¢ profit if right. The estimate is our AI's, not a proven chance.
- Forecast-aligned: this agrees with the National Weather Service point forecast. Kalshi traders see the same forecast, so this is not a separately measured edge, and a daily high can miss a two-degree bucket by a single degree.
Stats at publication
- Entry quote at lock
- No 71¢
- Market-implied at lock
- 71%
- Our AI's estimate
- 88%
- Edge after Kalshi fee
- +15.6 pts
- 24h volume
- 5,668
- Outcomes
- 2
Recorded times (Central)
- Picked by our desk
- Locked (saved for good)
- First on this site
- Price as of