No: Above $4.20
How high will gas prices in Texas get this year?
Risk: Bold call
Bold call: our AI rates this pick more than 10 points higher than the market price. When the two disagree that much, the market is often right, so this pick carries extra risk. Run It Bet is entertainment; only use money you can afford to lose.
- AI estimate
- 85%
- Market-implied at publication
- 74%
- Price at publication
- 74¢
- Edge after fee
- +9.7 pts
- Category
- ECON
- Ticker
- KXAAAGASMAXTX-26DEC31-4.20
- Side
- No
- Market closes
Texas gas is averaging $3.71 today and has been trending down over the past month. Hitting $4.20 would require a 49-cent spike in the 65 days left without any major disruption in sight, so the 'No' side looks strong.
Original analysis
- Chosen by our AI models at the 8 AM lock, from Kalshi's live prices and the AAA Texas gas prices.
- AAA Texas regular gas average: $3.7105 (record $4.6949). Source: https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=TX.
- A Kalshi contract pays $1 if right. We recorded a 74¢ entry quote at publication, a market-implied reference of about 74%. That is the market's price.
- Our AI's estimate: 85%. Price: 74¢ plus about 1.4¢ Kalshi fee. Edge: +9.7 points. Each $1 contract costs about 75.4¢ and pays 24.7¢ profit if right. The estimate is our AI's, not a proven chance.
Stats at publication
- Entry quote at lock
- No 74¢
- Market-implied at lock
- 74%
- Our AI's estimate
- 85%
- Edge after Kalshi fee
- +9.7 pts
- 24h volume
- 49
- Outcomes
- 10
Recorded times (Central)
- Picked by our desk
- Locked (saved for good)
- First on this site
- Price as of